Estimating Lactase Nonpersistence Distributions in the Multi-Ethnic Canadian Demographic: A Population-Based Study

The lactase persistence/nonpersistence (LP/LNP) phenotypes follow a geographic pattern that is rooted in the gene-culture coevolution observed throughout the history of human migrations. The immense size and relatively open immigration policy have drawn migrants of diverse ethnicities to Canada. Among the multicultural demographic, two-thirds of the population are derived from the British Isles and northwestern France. A recent assessment of worldwide lactase distributions found Canada to have an LNP rate of 59% (confidence interval [CI] 44%-74%). This estimate is rather high compared with earlier reports that listed Canada as a country with a 10% LNP rate; the authors had also noted that biases were likely because their calculations were based largely on Aboriginal studies. We hereby present an alternate LNP prevalence estimate at the national, provincial and territorial level.

We applied the referenced LNP frequency distribution data to the 2016 population census to account for the current multi-ethnic distributions in Canada. Prevalence rates for Canada, the provinces and territories were calculated.

The national LNP rate is estimated at 44% (CI 41%-47%) after accounting for the 254 ethnic groups, with the lowest rates found in the eastern provinces and the highest rates in the Northwest Territories (57%) and Nunavut (66%), respectively.

Despite the heterogeneous nature of the referenced data and the inference measures taken, evidently, the validity of our LNP estimate is anchored on the inclusion of multi-ethnic groups representing the current Canadian demographic.