Actionable Risk Model for the Development of Surgical Site Infection after Emergency Surgery

Surgical site infections (SSIs) increase mortality and the economic burden associated with emergency surgery (ES). A reliable and sensitive scoring system to predict SSIs can help guide clinician assessment and patient counseling of post-operative SSI risk. We hypothesized that after quantifying the ES post-operative SSI incidence, readily abstractable parameters can be used to develop an actionable risk stratification scheme. We reviewed retrospectively all patients who underwent ES operations at an urban academic hospital system (2005-2013). Comorbidities and operative characteristics were abstracted from the electronic health record (EHR) with a primary outcome of post-operative SSIs. Risk of SSI was calculated using logistic regression modeling and validated using bootstrapping techniques. Beta-coefficients were calculated to correlate risk. A simplified clinical risk assessment tool was derived by assigning point values to the rounded β-coefficients. A total of 4,783 patients with a 13.2% incidence of post-operative SSIs were identified. The strongest risk factors associated with SSIs included acute intestinal ischemia, weight loss, intestinal perforation, trauma-related laparotomy, radiation exposure, previous gastrointestinal surgery, and peritonitis. The assessment tool defined three patient groups based on SSI risk. Post-operative SSI incidence in high-risk patients (34%; score = 6-10) exceeded that of medium- (11.1%; score = 3-5) and low-risk patients (1.5%; score = 1-2) (C statistic = 0.802). Patients with a risk score ≥10 points evidenced the highest post-operative SSI risk (71.9%). Pre-operative identification of ES patient risk for post-operative SSI may inform pre-operative patient counseling and operative planning if the proposed procedure includes medical device implantation. A clinically relevant seven-factor risk stratification model such as this empirically derived one may be suitable to incorporate into the EHR as a decision-support tool.