Rethinking workforce planning for integrated care: using scenario analysis to facilitate policy development.

Area of Science:

• Health Workforce Planning
• Integrated Care Models
• Policy Development

Background:

• Current health workforce planning struggles with the uncertainty and varied definitions of integrated care.
• Future workforces require adaptable numbers, roles, and skill mixes, challenging existing policy processes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a novel scenario-based approach for health workforce planning.
• To address the limitations of current planning methods in the context of integrated care.
• To identify policy development opportunities for future healthcare workforces.

Main Methods:

• A mixed-methods design combining content analysis and scenario methods.
• Utilized a policy Delphi to assess developed scenarios for desirability, feasibility, and validity.
• Gathered data from existing workforce documents and studies.

Main Results:

• Successfully applied the method to New Zealand's Older Persons Health sector.
• Developed three distinct scenarios, including a normative one and two alternatives based on key drivers.
• The policy Delphi panel identified one alternative scenario as more desirable and noted favorable policy proposals.

Conclusions:

• Scenario-based planning effectively accommodates uncertainty in health workforce planning for integrated care.
• The approach overcomes weaknesses in current methods by exploring a wider range of futures.
• Scenarios facilitate policy rehearsal and reflection for better preparedness.