Predictions of cognitive detriments from galactic cosmic ray exposures to astronauts on exploration missions

For the first-time we report on predictions on cognitive detriments from galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures on long-duration space missions outside the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere and solid body shielding. Estimates are based on a relative risk (RR) model of the fluence response for proton and heavy ion in rodent studies using the widely used novel object recognition (NOR) test, which estimates detriments in recognition or object memory. Our recent meta-analysis showed that linear and linear-quadratic dose response models were not accurate, while exponential increasing fluence response models based on particle track structure provided good descriptions of rodent data for doses up to 1 Gy. Using detailed models of the GCR environment and particle transport in shielding and tissue, we predict the excess relative risk (ERR) for NOR detriments for several long-term space mission scenarios. Predictions suggest ERR < 0.15 for most space mission scenarios with ERR<0.1 for 1-year lunar surface missions, and about ERR~0.1 for a 1000 day Mars mission for average solar cycle conditions. We discuss possible implications of these ERR levels of cognitive performance detriments relative to other neurological challenges such as rodent models of Alzheimer's disease (AD), Parkinson's disease (PD) and traumatic brain injury (TBI). Comparisons suggest a small but potentially clinically significant risk for possible space mission scenarios.