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Changes in Fire Activity in Africa from 2002 to 2016 and Their Potential Drivers
Maria Zubkova1, Luigi Boschetti1, John T Abatzoglou2
1Department of Natural Resources and Society, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
Geophysical Research Letters
|May 23, 2020
Summary
Africa experienced an 18.5% decline in burned area from 2002-2016. Increased moisture, not agricultural changes, primarily drove this reduction in fire activity across natural landscapes.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Climate science
- Ecology
Background:
- Recent studies indicate a decline in Africa's burned area, but its causes remain unclear.
- Understanding fire dynamics is crucial for African ecosystems and climate regulation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the drivers behind the observed decrease in burned area in Africa between 2002 and 2016.
- To differentiate the impact of climate factors versus land management on fire extent.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of satellite-derived burned area data from 2002 to 2016.
- Application of linear models incorporating climate variables (biomass productivity, aridity) and land cover data.
Main Results:
- A significant 18.5% decline in burned area across Africa was recorded.
- The Northern Hemisphere showed the most substantial decrease (80% of the total reduction).
- Climate factors explained approximately 70% of the burned area decline in natural areas, with increased terrestrial moisture being a key driver.
Conclusions:
- Increased terrestrial moisture, rather than changes in agricultural practices, is the primary factor behind the recent decline in African fire activity.
- While most fires are human-induced, climatic conditions significantly modulate fire extent.
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