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Increasing synchronicity of global extreme fire weather
Cong Yin1,2, John T Abatzoglou3, Matthew W Jones4
1Sierra Nevada Research Institute, University of California, Merced, CA, USA.
Science Advances
|February 18, 2026
Summary
Synchronous fire weather (SFW) is increasing globally due to climate change, complicating fire suppression and worsening air quality. This trend poses growing risks to firefighting efforts and public health.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Extreme fire weather leads to widespread fires, straining resources and degrading air quality.
- Synchronous fire weather (SFW) across regions presents complex challenges for fire management and public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze patterns and trends of intra- and interregional synchronous fire weather (SFW).
- To investigate the links between SFW, climate variability, and air quality impacts.
- To quantify the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed SFW increases.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical fire weather data from 1979 to 2024.
- Statistical methods to assess trends and attribution to climate change.
- Correlation analysis between SFW, climate oscillations (e.g., El Niño), and PM2.5 concentrations.
Main Results:
- Elevated intraregional SFW in boreal regions and interregional synchronicity in northern temperate and boreal zones.
- A more than twofold increase in SFW across most regions from 1979-2024.
- Over 50% of the SFW increase attributed to anthropogenic climate change.
- El Niño events correlate with increased SFW in Equatorial Asia.
- Strong correlations found between SFW and regional fire-sourced PM2.5.
Conclusions:
- Synchronous fire weather is increasing significantly, driven largely by human-induced climate change.
- Climate variability influences regional SFW patterns.
- Rising SFW exacerbates air quality issues and complicates fire suppression, posing significant risks to human health and safety.
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