Using latent class analysis to identify the complex needs of youth on probation

Youth involved with the juvenile justice system have higher rates of unmet social and psychological service needs than the general population. Yet, scant research has addressed the potentially complex needs of youth on probation. This study is thus a first step in improving our ability to promote positive youth development and improved outcomes from youth on probation. It uses administrative data on probation youth from FY2011-2013 in a mid-Atlantic state. We estimated latent class models based on the ordinal scoring (high, moderate, none/low) of the 25 subscales from a standardized assessment administered at intake. In order to test whether groups were distinct, we examined a range of variables, including the official risk classification and recidivism rates measured by officieal rearrests and reconvictions. We report the demographic differences between the estimated groups, as well as adverse childhood experiences, school and employment status, previous legal history, and substance use history. Ultimately, the seven-class model produced four groups that others have noted: a relatively low needs (lowest need), relatively high needs (complex needs), substance use service needs, and mental health service needs. The other three groups that emerged include two gender specific groups (one for male and one for female high-need groups) and a group with skills needs that lacks supportive and protective skills. The analyses will facilitate a better appreciation for the service needs of moderate risk youth. Youth on probation are not a uniform population; they reflect tremendous heterogeneity, and probation systems should embrace systemic responsivity to provide appropriate services to improve youth outcomes. Advancing efforts to provide a broader spectrum of services that address multi-morbid conditions can ensure that youth have opportunities to improve their quality of life during the period of supervision.