Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk Perception of Natural Hazards

Area of Science:

• Disaster risk reduction
• Psychology of risk
• Natural hazard preparedness

Background:

• Risk perception is crucial for predicting natural hazard preparedness.
• Previous research on experience, preparedness, and risk perception yields inconsistent findings.
• Understanding the nuances of direct experience is vital for effective disaster risk management.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the influence of physical and emotional experiences on risk perception following a natural hazard.
• To explore the relationship between direct experience, risk perception, and preparedness behaviors.
• To analyze the mediating role of worry in the emotional experience-risk perception link.

Main Methods:

• A survey was administered to a representative sample (n=701) in Iquique, Chile, one month post-earthquake and tsunami (8.2 Mw).
• Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to analyze nine proposed relationships between experience, risk perception, and preparedness.
• Key variables included direct physical experience, direct emotional experience, worry, risk perception, and preparedness actions.

Main Results:

• Direct physical experience positively influenced risk perception.
• Direct emotional experience indirectly influenced risk perception through worry.
• Emotional experience did not directly impact current preparedness or risk perception.
• The final SEM model demonstrated adequate fit, with six of nine proposed relationships being significant.

Conclusions:

• Direct physical and emotional experiences are key drivers of risk perception after natural hazards.
• Preparedness strategies should consider the distinct pathways through which physical and emotional experiences affect risk perception.
• Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interplay between experience, emotion, and preparedness in disaster contexts.