COVID-19: Complexity and the Black Swan

In previous President's Columns (Valeras, 2019a, 2019b), the properties of complexity and complex adaptive systems have been discussed, in terms of the value of continual and iterative change, in order to nudge a system to emerge differently, rather than maintain the status quo. COVID-19 is not a nudge; it is a tidal wave. Engaging with and understanding complexity science allows us to examine the internal rules of our health care system and recognize our own role as agents that can systematically and deliberately disrupt the status quo. The intertwined and interdependent complex relationships that exist in health care between persons, business, academia, and government buffer the system from rapid and drastic change. COVID-19, however, swiftly disrupted many of the rules keeping the system in its previous state. Some would describe this sudden and dramatic systems change as a Black Swan. This column will examine the role of the Black Swan, as it relates to this pandemic. The Black Swan is a term coined in the 2nd century by Roman poet Juvenal's description of something being rara avis in terries nigroque simillima cygno, Latin for "a bird as rare as the black swan" (Taleb, 2007, p. xxxi). At this time, reference to a black swan was meant as a statement of impossibility, because all historical records of swans had been white. In 1697, Dutch explorers discovered black swans living in the wild in Western Australia (Taleb, 2007, p. xxi), and the black swan became a metaphor for events that come as a surprise, have major implications, and can often be understood only with the benefit of hindsight. This theory of the black swan was further articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his books Fooled by Randomness (Taleb, 2001) and The Black Swan (Taleb, 2007). (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).