Using ensemble modeling to predict the impacts of assisted migration on recipient ecosystems
Katie Peterson1, Michael Bode2
1ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, Sir George Fisher Research Building, James Cook University, 1 James Cook Drive, Douglas, QLD, 4814, Australia.
Summary
Assisted migration can save threatened species but risks local extinctions. This study quantifies the impact of translocated species on recipient ecosystems, finding establishment is likely but can cause biodiversity loss.
Area of Science:
- Conservation Biology
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Assisted migration is a conservation strategy involving moving species outside their native ranges to prevent extinction.
- While potentially beneficial for target species, the risks posed to recipient ecosystems are poorly understood.
- Quantitative assessments of threats to existing species within ecosystems are lacking.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantitatively estimate the risks of assisted migration to species within recipient ecosystems.
- To evaluate the probability of successful establishment of translocated species.
- To predict the number of local extinctions resulting from assisted migration projects.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ensemble modeling framework to simulate assisted migration scenarios.
- Assessed a wide range of translocated species and recipient ecosystem combinations.
- Employed simulated 15-species recipient ecosystems to estimate outcomes.
Main Results:
- Translocated species are predicted to establish successfully in 83% of cases in stable, high-quality habitats.
- Assisted migration projects were estimated to cause an average of 0.6 local extinctions.
- Approximately 5% of successful translocations resulted in 4 or more local extinctions.
Conclusions:
- Assisted migration carries a significant risk of causing local extinctions in recipient ecosystems.
- Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for conservation managers to balance benefits and drawbacks.
- Further research is needed to refine predictions and inform policy on assisted migration.
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