Predicting Responses to Bariatric and Metabolic Surgery

Bariatric surgery is today the most effective therapy for weight loss and reduction of comorbidity burden in patients with severe obesity. However, bariatric surgery does not benefit equally all the patients. A consistent variability in outcomes has been observed. Predicting responses to bariatric surgery could be an important tool in clinical practice, by improving patients' selection or by identifying patients in which more aggressive follow-up and post-operative intervention should be applied. Predictive factors for weight loss, weight regain, diabetes remission and recurrence are briefly reviewed in this paper.

Many pre-operative factors have been proposed as negative or positive predictors of body weight reduction after surgery. However, none of these factors has been consistently demonstrated to have a sufficiently strong predictive power to influence eligibility to bariatric surgery itself. Weight regain can occur after bariatric surgery and its probability seems to be more influenced by post-operative behavioral factors than by pre-operative predictors. Several effective scores have been developed to predict diabetes remission after surgery, however long-term maintenance and diabetes recurrence after surgery seem again more influenced by post-operative behaviors and weight loss maintenance. In general, more attention and active interventions to pre-operative and post-operative eating behaviors and lifestyle modifications are probably more important at the clinical level than the search of pre-operative predictors of long-term outcomes.