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Published on: September 16, 2015
Forecasting US recessions: The role of economic uncertainty
Valerio Ercolani1, Filippo Natoli1
1Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research, Italy.
Abstract:
This letter highlights the role of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty in predicting US recessions. In-sample forecasts using probit models indicate that the two variables are the best predictors of recessions at short horizons. Macroeconomic uncertainty has the highest predictive power up to 7 months ahead and becomes the second best predictor - after the yield curve slope - at longer horizons. Using data up to end-2018, out-of-sample forecasts show that uncertainty has significantly contributed to lower the probability of a recession in 2019, which indeed did not occur.
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