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Do GRE scores help predict getting a physics Ph.D.? A comment on a paper by Miller et al.
1Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1110 West Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801-3080, USA.
Science Advances
|June 18, 2020
Summary
Graduate Record Examinations (GREs) may not predict physics Ph.D. success. The original analysis had statistical issues, including bias and data omissions, potentially skewing results on graduate student outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Physics Education Research
- Graduate Admissions
- Statistical Methodology
Background:
- A recent study in *Science Advances* by Miller et al. questioned the predictive validity of the Graduate Record Examinations (GREs) for physics Ph.D. completion.
- The study's conclusion suggested GRE scores do not reliably forecast success in physics graduate programs.
Purpose of the Study:
- To critically evaluate the statistical methodology employed in the Miller et al. paper.
- To identify potential biases and limitations in the analysis that may affect the conclusions regarding GREs' predictive power.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of the statistical techniques used in the original study, identifying potential issues.
- Discussion of collider-like stratification bias, variance inflation due to collinearity and range restriction.
- Critique of omitted variables (correlation matrix components) and peculiar null hypothesis choices.
Main Results:
- The original analysis may suffer from significant statistical flaws, including stratification bias and inflated confidence intervals.
- Omission of crucial data, such as stratification by graduate program rank, likely impacts the reliability of the findings.
- The distinction between failing to reject a null hypothesis and accepting a null hypothesis appears blurred in the original study.
Conclusions:
- The statistical approach in the Miller et al. paper is argued to be problematic, potentially invalidating its conclusions about GREs.
- Incorporating stratification by graduate program rank into the model is proposed as a solution to address identified analytical deficiencies.
- Further research with corrected statistical methods is needed to accurately assess the role of GREs in predicting physics Ph.D. attainment.
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