Related Experiment Videos
Big data and prediction: Four case studies
1Birkbeck College, University of London, Department of Philosophy, Malet Street, London, WC1E 7HX, UK.
Abstract:
Has the rise of data-intensive science, or 'big data', revolutionized our ability to predict? Does it imply a new priority for prediction over causal understanding, and a diminished role for theory and human experts? I examine four important cases where prediction is desirable: political elections, the weather, GDP, and the results of interventions suggested by economic experiments. These cases suggest caution. Although big data methods are indeed very useful sometimes, in this paper's cases they improve predictions either limitedly or not at all, and their prospects of doing so in the future are limited too.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Case Studies
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
Statistical Software for Data Analysis and Clinical Trials
Regression Toward the Mean
Outliers and Influential Points