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Spatial Analysis of Global Variability in Covid-19 Burden
Larry E Miller1, Ruemon Bhattacharyya1, Anna L Miller1
1Department of Biostatistics, Miller Scientific, Johnson City, TN, USA.
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy
|June 26, 2020
Summary
High COVID-19 prevalence does not always mean high incidence. Public health tools should report both country-specific COVID-19 incidence and prevalence data for better tracking.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Surveillance
Background:
- Numerous online tools track COVID-19 prevalence globally.
- Limited resources provide country-specific COVID-19 incidence data.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the global impact of COVID-19 by examining country-specific prevalence and incidence.
- To highlight the disparity between COVID-19 prevalence and incidence across nations.
Main Methods:
- Descriptive analysis of COVID-19 cases, fatalities, and case fatality rates using WHO data (March 17, 2020).
- Calculation of country-specific COVID-19 incidence based on population data.
- Geocoded data visualization using heat maps to display spatial distribution.
Main Results:
- Analysis included 193,197 COVID-19 cases and 7,859 deaths.
- Highest prevalence observed in China, Italy, Iran, and Spain.
- Highest incidence per million population recorded in San Marino, Iceland, and Italy.
Conclusions:
- COVID-19 prevalence and incidence can vary independently between countries.
- Public health agencies should include country-specific incidence metrics alongside prevalence data in real-time tracking tools.
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