Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases are not random: explaining trend, low- and high-frequency oscillations based on...

Why human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases differ from year to year, in some years more 100%, has not been clarified, yet. The cause of the increasing or decreasing trends is also controversial. Austria is the only country in Europe where a 40-year TBE time series and an official vaccine coverage time series are available to investigate these open questions.

A series of generalized linear models (GLMs) has been developed to identify demographic and environmental factors associated with the trend and the oscillations of the TBE time series. Both the observed and the predicted TBE time series were subjected to spectral analysis. The resulting power spectra indicate which predictors are responsible for the trend, the high-frequency and the low-frequency oscillations, and with which explained variance they contribute to the TBE oscillations.

The increasing trend can be associated with the demography of the increasing human population. The responsible GLM explains 12% of the variance of the TBE time series. The low-frequency oscillations (10 years) are associated with the decadal changes of the large-scale climate in Central Europe. These are well described by the so-called Scandinavian index. This 10-year oscillation cycle is reinforced by the socio-economic predictor net migration. Considering the net migration and the Scandinavian index increases the explained variance of the GLM to 44%. The high-frequency oscillations (2-3 years) are associated with fluctuations of the natural TBE transmission cycle between small mammals and ticks, which are driven by beech fructification. Considering also fructification 2 years prior explains 64% of the variance of the TBE time series. Additionally, annual sunshine duration as predictor for the human outdoor activity increases the explained variance to 70%.

The GLMs presented here provide the basis for annual TBE forecasts, which were mainly determined by beech fructification. A total of 3 of the 5 years with full fructification, resulting in high TBE case numbers 2 years later, occurred after 2010. The effects of climate change are therefore not visible through a direct correlation of the TBE cases with rising temperatures, but indirectly via the increased frequency of mast seeding.