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Unification by Fiat: Arrested Development of Predictive Processing.

Piotr Litwin1,2, Marcin Miłkowski2

  • 1Faculty of Psychology, University of Warsaw.

Cognitive Science
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Summary

Predictive processing (PP) is not yet a unified theory of cognition, lacking clear computational and biological links. Further empirical validation and theoretical clarity are needed for PP to succeed.

Keywords:
Bayesian just-so storiesConsistency fallacyExplanationPredictive processing theory of cognitionUnification

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Science
  • Neuroscience
  • Philosophy of Mind

Background:

  • Predictive processing (PP) is proposed as a unifying framework for perception, action, and cognition.
  • The theory posits that the brain constantly predicts sensory input and updates internal models based on prediction errors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the current state of predictive processing as a unifying theory.
  • To identify fundamental weaknesses and suggest directions for future development.

Main Methods:

  • Critical analysis of existing predictive processing literature.
  • Examination of the theory's computational and biological underpinnings.
  • Assessment of empirical validation and explanatory power of PP-based models.

Main Results:

  • Predictive processing currently lacks general, simple, homogeneous, and systematic explanations.
  • PP models exhibit loose connections to their computational and biological bases, leading to unclear fundamentals.
  • Many PP models are not empirically validated and lack systematic validation against alternative theories.

Conclusions:

  • Predictive processing's development as a unificatory theory is arrested due to the gap between its theoretical claims and its bases.
  • Defenders of PP must address critical problems, focus on empirical validation, and compare models against alternatives.
  • Without these improvements, PP risks failing as a unified theory of cognition.