Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China

Yi Zou1, Stephen Pan1, Peng Zhao1

  • 1Department of Health and Environmental Sciences, Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, China.

Plos One
|June 30, 2020
PubMed

Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
411
Population Growth00:57

Population Growth

Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.
27.6K
Exponential Equations for Modeling Growth02:33

Exponential Equations for Modeling Growth

Exponential models are essential for describing rapid, multiplicative changes in natural systems, such as population growth. When a population doubles at regular intervals, the process can be modeled using a suitable base. For instance, a bacterial culture that doubles every three hours follows the model n(t)=n0⋅2t/3, where n(t) is the population at the time t.A more general model uses the natural base e, especially for continuous growth. This takes the form n(t)=n0⋅ert, where r is...
120
Exponential Equations with Logarithms: Problem Solving01:29

Exponential Equations with Logarithms: Problem Solving

In ecological studies, exponential models are often used to predict how populations grow over time under favorable conditions. These models assume that the growth rate is proportional to the current population, leading to continuous and compounding increases.The model expresses the population as a function of time, combining the initial population with a growth factor raised to an exponent involving the growth rate and time. To estimate how long it takes for a population to reach a specific...
98
Causality in Epidemiology01:21

Causality in Epidemiology

Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
1.4K
Bacterial Growth Curve01:28

Bacterial Growth Curve

The bacterial growth curve is a fundamental concept in microbiology that describes the dynamics of bacterial population growth in a closed system with controlled environmental conditions, such as temperature and nutrient availability. This curve is divided into four distinct phases: lag, log (exponential), stationary, and death phases, each reflecting a unique stage of bacterial adaptation and growth. During the lag phase, bacteria acclimate to their surroundings by synthesizing essential...
1.8K