Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach

Area of Science:

• Paleoclimatology
• Climate Science
• Earth System Science

Background:

• Reconstructing past global mean surface temperature (GMST) is crucial for understanding Earth's climate dynamics.
• Previous analyses were limited by the availability and robustness of paleo-temperature data.
• The new Temperature 12k database offers an extensive multi-proxy record for improved Holocene climate studies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To reconstruct Holocene GMST and associated uncertainties using a novel multi-proxy database.
• To compare results from multiple statistical methods for robust climate reconstruction.
• To provide a reliable dataset and methodology for future Holocene climate research.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Temperature 12k database, comprising extensive paleo-temperature time series.
• Applied five distinct statistical methods to reconstruct GMST over the past 12,000 years.
• Aggregated results into a multi-method ensemble to characterize uncertainties from proxy data, chronology, and methodology.

Main Results:

• Identified the warmest 200-year interval around 6,500 years ago, with GMST 0.7°C warmer than the 19th century.
• Documented a subsequent cooling trend in GMST at an average rate of -0.08°C per 1000 years.
• Generated a multi-method ensemble of GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with quantified uncertainties.

Conclusions:

• The Temperature 12k database and multi-method approach provide a more robust understanding of Holocene GMST variations.
• The findings offer insights into the magnitude and rate of past climate change.
• The developed ensembles and code are valuable resources for future Earth system evolution studies.