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Rationally inattentive intertemporal choice.

Samuel J Gershman1,2,3, Rahul Bhui4,5

  • 1Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA. gershman@fas.harvard.edu.

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Temporal discounting, the preference for immediate rewards, may stem from internal uncertainty and rational inattention to future event values. This adaptive cognitive strategy influences intertemporal choice and magnitude effects.

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Neuroeconomics
  • Decision science

Background:

  • Traditional views attribute temporal discounting to an intrinsic preference for immediate rewards.
  • Alternative explanations suggest internal uncertainty in future value representations contributes to discounting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a theoretical account where temporal discounting arises from adaptive modulation of simulation noise based on rational inattention.
  • To investigate how optimal allocation of mental effort explains the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice.

Main Methods:

  • Theoretical modeling integrating noisy mental simulations with prior beliefs under rational inattention.
  • Re-analysis of two existing datasets on intertemporal choice.
  • Conducting a new experiment to test behavioral signatures.

Main Results:

  • Demonstrated how rational inattention and adaptive effort allocation can generate the magnitude effect.
  • Identified behavioral signatures linking choice stochasticity to the magnitude effect.
  • Findings consistent across re-analyzed and new experimental data.

Conclusions:

  • Temporal discounting may partly result from a cognitively plausible, adaptive response to information processing costs.
  • Internal uncertainty, modulated by task demands, offers an alternative to intrinsic preference explanations.
  • Highlights the role of rational inattention in shaping intertemporal decision-making.