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Why calibrating LR-systems is best practice. A reaction to "The evaluation of evidence for microspectrophotometry
Peter Vergeer1, Ivo Alberink1, Marjan Sjerps2
1The Netherlands Forensic Institute, P.O. Box 24044, 2490 AA, The Hague, the Netherlands.
Abstract:
In their paper "The evaluation of evidence for microspectrophotometry data using functional data analysis", in FSI 305, Aitken et al. present a likelihood-ratio (LR) system for their data. We show the values generated by this system cannot be interpreted as LRs: they are ill-calibrated and should be interpreted as discriminating scores. We demonstrate how to transform the scores to well-calibrated LRs using a post-hoc calibrating step. Also, we address criticisms of calibration posited by Aitken et al. We conclude by noting that ill-calibrated LR-values are misleadingly small or large. Therefore calibration should be measured and, if necessary, corrected for. The corrected LR-values (instead of the discriminating scores) can be used to update the prior odds in Bayes rule.
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