A novel method for assessing climate change impacts in ecotron experiments.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Science
• Ecology

Background:

• Ecotron facilities offer precise environmental control for ecosystem process monitoring.
• Realistic climate forcing is crucial for manipulation experiments mimicking field conditions and future projections.
• Existing methods may not fully capture the multivariate nature of climate change.

Purpose of the Study:

• To introduce a novel methodology for generating realistic climate forcing data for Ecotron manipulation experiments.
• To apply this method to the UHasselt Ecotron experiment using regional climate model projections.
• To enable more accurate assessment of ecosystem responses to projected climate change.

Main Methods:

• Selected the best-performing regional climate model from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble based on observational skill and future projection representativeness.
• Generated climate forcing along a gradient of increasing global mean air temperature anomalies.
• Utilized 3-hourly projection data from 5-year periods corresponding to specific global mean air temperatures.

Main Results:

• Successfully created realistic, multivariate climate forcing for Ecotron experiments.
• The method accounts for co-variation between climate variables and projected variability.
• The approach effectively represents potential compound climate events.

Conclusions:

• The new methodology enhances the capability of Ecotron facilities to study ecosystem responses to realistic climate change.
• This approach allows for the investigation of ecosystem dynamics under changing climatic conditions, including compound events.
• The methodology is adaptable for other manipulation experiments focused on future climate change impacts.