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Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix-Based Simulation Approach.

Jianfeng Zhou1, Genserik Reniers2,3,4

  • 1School of Electromechanical Engineering, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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Domino accidents at major hazard installations are complex. This study proposes a simple matrix-based model to analyze accident propagation and calculate domino effect probabilities, enhancing industrial safety assessments.

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Industrial safety engineering
  • Risk assessment and management
  • Complex systems analysis

Background:

  • Major industrial accidents can trigger cascading domino effects between hazard installations.
  • The propagation of domino effects is complex due to interdependencies and diverse accident types.
  • Existing analytical methods for domino accident formulation are often complex and limited.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a simplified matrix-based modeling approach for domino effect analysis.
  • To provide a method for analyzing accident propagation between industrial installations.
  • To offer a simulation-based algorithm for calculating domino accident probabilities and levels.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a matrix-based model representing inter-installation escalation vectors.
  • Formulation of an accident propagation analysis approach.
  • Implementation of a simulation-based algorithm for probability calculations.

Main Results:

  • The proposed matrix model effectively represents mutual influences between installations.
  • The analysis approach facilitates understanding of accident propagation dynamics.
  • The simulation algorithm provides a method for estimating domino accident probabilities and severity levels.

Conclusions:

  • The matrix-based modeling approach offers a flexible and applicable method for domino effect analysis.
  • This approach simplifies the complex nature of domino accidents in industrial settings.
  • The study demonstrates the utility of the method in estimating domino probabilities through a case study.