New-onset ESRD secondary to reflux nephropathy has decreased in incidence in the United States

Vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) has been associated with the development and progression of reflux nephropathy (RN). Management of VUR has become more conservative over time as therapies have not been reliably proven to prevent renal scarring. We sought to examine the incidence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) due to RN over recent decades in the United States.

The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) is a national data system that collects information about chronic kidney disease and ESRD. Since 1995, the USRDS has mandated that all dialysis centers enroll and submit data on new-onset ESRD patients. Of the over 2.5 million patients enrolled since 1996, 7314 were enrolled with a diagnosis code for RN as the primary cause of ESRD. We examined the trends seen in this patient population from 1996 to 2014 and used US census data to calculate incidence.

The incidence of patients with new-onset ESRD attributed primarily to RN saw a steady decrease over time: from 1.9 per million in 1996 to 0.6 per million in the US population in 2014 (exp(B) = 0.941, p < 0.001). 58.8% of the patients were female, 87.4% white. The mean age at the time of ESRD onset was 47 years (IQR 30-65) and this did not significantly vary over the period (P > 0.05). When comparing pediatric new-onset ESRD to adult-onset, a non-significant trend (p = 0.093) was seen with a decrease in incidence of adult ESRD, but a relatively stable incidence of pediatric ESRD (mean age 12, incidence 0.2-0.6 cases per million US children/year). 44.5% of patients received renal transplantation at a mean age of 36 years, 18.9 months (IQR 5-40) after ESRD diagnosis. The mean age of mortality was 62 years old (IQR 50-76), and 5-year survival after RN ESRD diagnosis was 65.8%.

As with any public database study, our findings may be limited by disease coding or reporting practices. Medical and surgical management trends practiced since the 1960s may have contributed to a decrease in the incidence of ESRD primarily attributed to RN in the United States between 1996 and 2014. Our findings may also reflect changes in diagnostic practices.

ESRD attributed primarily to RN has gradually decreased in incidence in the United States between 1996 and 2014, but the age of ESRD onset has been unchanged.