Affective Forecasting Bias: Liability or Protective Factor?

We examined whether affective forecasting biases prospectively predict depression and anxiety symptoms in the context of life stress. Participants (n = 72) completed- baseline measures of depression, anxiety, and mood predictions, followed by one week of ecological momentary assessments of mood. Three months later, they completed measures of depression, anxiety, and life stress. Neither positive nor negative mood prediction biases at baseline were associated with follow-up anxiety scores. Positive mood prediction biases were not associated with follow-up depression scores. However, the interaction between negative mood prediction bias and life stress predicted follow-up depression scores. Under conditions of greater life stress, stronger negative mood prediction biases predicted lower follow-up depression scores. Under conditions of positive life change, stronger negative mood prediction biases predicted higher follow-up depression scores. Negative mood prediction bias might serve as a protective or liability factor, depending on levels of stress. Clinical implications and future directions are discussed.