China's College Expansion and the Timing of College-to-Work Transition: A Natural Experiment

This paper examines the causal effect of China's 1999 accelerated expansion of higher education on the timing of finding a first skilled job among college graduates. To test hypotheses derived from applying relevant theories to the China case, we use a natural experiment. The analysis exploits the unique education and work history data of a nationally representative survey and estimates a causal inference model. We find that the 1999 expansion causes a delay in the landing of a skilled job among graduates from technical colleges, while graduates from 4-year colleges are not affected in job acquisition. We also find that family origins and individual social positions remain significant in the selectivity of entering college before and after education expansion acceleration. These findings shed new light on the universal phenomenon of early adulthood and social inequality in China.