Natural history of asthma symptoms after epidemic thunderstorm asthma: a 3-year longitudinal study

The world's most catastrophic epidemic thunderstorm asthma event (ETSA) affected Melbourne in 2016. Little is known about the natural history of individuals affected by such extreme events.

In this single center prospective 3-year longitudinal study, symptomatology and behaviors of individuals affected by ETSA were assessed.

Standardized telephone questionnaire was used to evaluate frequency of asthma symptoms, inhaled corticosteroid preventer use, asthma action plan ownership, and healthcare utilization. Questionnaires were administered at 12, 24, and 36 months after 2016 ETSA. Subgroup analyses of the 'current', 'past', 'possible,' and 'no asthma' subgroups were also conducted.

Two hundred and eight, 164, and 112 completed questionnaires were analyzed in 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Seventy to eighty five percent of respondents reported ongoing asthma symptoms in any given year, of which 20%-28% experienced weekly symptoms. Nearly 50% of respondents were prescribed preventers, with approximately 45% adherent at least 5 days a week. Less than 40% had an asthma action plan and 15%-20% sought urgent medical attention for asthma over the follow-up period. Among 106 individuals with 3 consecutive years of completed questionnaires, those with no prior doctor diagnosis of asthma were significantly more likely to be asymptomatic on follow-up than those with a prior doctor diagnosis of asthma (p = 0.02). Subgroup analyses suggest that large proportions of respondents with 'past' and 'no asthma' continue to remain symptomatic throughout the 36-month period.

In individuals affected by ETSA, we found evidence of ongoing loss of asthma control in those with previously well controlled asthma, and the persistence of symptoms suggestive of asthma in those with no history or symptoms suggestive of prior asthma, even after 36 months from initial ETSA. Low rates of inhaler adherence and asthma action plan ownership may contribute to increased morbidity and mortality from future ETSA events. Further research is required to confirm these findings.