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Using future age profiles to improve immigration projections.

Terje Skjerpen¹, Marianne Tønnessen²

¹Statistics Norway.

Population Studies

|August 20, 2020

Summary

Global population ageing will decrease future immigration. This study integrates UN age projections with emigration rates to refine immigration forecasts, showing lower projected immigration when considering origin country ageing. This impacts population projections significantly.

Keywords:

age structure ageing emigration immigration migration population projections

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Area of Science:

Demography
Population Studies
Migration Research

Background:

Younger populations exhibit higher migration rates than older demographics.
Global population ageing is a significant trend often overlooked in immigration projections.
Current immigration models may not adequately account for demographic shifts in origin countries.

Purpose of the Study:

To improve national immigration projections by incorporating demographic changes in origin regions.
To quantify the impact of population ageing in emigration countries on future immigration flows.
To demonstrate a method for integrating United Nations age profile projections with regional emigration data.

Main Methods:

Utilized United Nations projections for future age structures in origin countries.
Applied age-specific emigration rates from origin regions.
Integrated these data to project future immigration to a destination country (Norway).
Employed various migration projection methodologies for comparative analysis.

Main Results:

Projected immigration levels are consistently lower when accounting for population ageing in origin regions.
The impact of considering origin country demographics on immigration projections is substantial.
For Norway, this adjustment significantly alters population forecasts, comparable to changes in fertility assumptions.

Conclusions:

Population ageing in origin countries is a critical factor for accurate immigration forecasting.
Standard immigration projection models may overestimate future migration flows.
Incorporating demographic shifts in emigration regions enhances the reliability of national population projections.