Modeling Coastal Flood Risk and Adaptation Response under Future Climate Conditions.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Coastal Engineering

Background:

• Coastal communities face increasing flood risks from sea level rise and storm surges.
• Standard cost-benefit analyses often overestimate investment in adaptation measures.
• Behavioral factors lead to sub-optimal investment in flood risk reduction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To update the National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) to include realistic cost-benefit tests.
• To simulate the impact of sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior on adaptation investment.
• To quantify the economic consequences of underinvestment in coastal adaptation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an updated National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) with refined cost-benefit assessments.
• Incorporated behavioral factors to approximate observed sub-optimal adaptation decisions.
• Tested the model on two U.S. coastal sites: Virginia Beach, VA, and Tampa, FL.

Main Results:

• Sub-optimal adaptation strategies delay measure implementation and increase flood damages, particularly in the short term.
• The total present value cost increased by $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), a 10% rise compared to optimal adaptation.
• Simulations highlighted significant economic impacts of behavioral factors on coastal adaptation effectiveness.

Conclusions:

• Sub-optimal decision-making in adaptation significantly increases long-term economic costs for coastal properties.
• Future research should calibrate models with historical data and include non-economic factors.
• Understanding and addressing behavioral barriers is crucial for effective coastal flood risk management.