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How pandemics affect tourism: International evidence
Gokhan Karabulut1, Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin2, Ender Demir3
1Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Annals of Tourism Research
|August 25, 2020
Summary
Pandemics significantly reduce international tourist arrivals, particularly impacting low-income economies. This study introduces a novel index to analyze pandemic effects on global tourism.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Tourism Studies
- Public Health
Background:
- Global pandemics pose significant threats to international travel and tourism.
- Understanding the economic impact of health crises on tourism is crucial for policy-making.
- Existing research lacks a nuanced measure to quantify pandemic influence on tourist flows.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the causal relationship between pandemics and tourist arrivals.
- To introduce and utilize the novel "Discussion about Pandemics Index" (DPI).
- To identify specific economic conditions under which pandemic effects on tourism are most pronounced.
Main Methods:
- Econometric analysis of international tourist arrival data.
- Application of the newly developed "Discussion about Pandemics Index" (DPI).
- Comparative analysis of pandemic impacts across economies with different income levels.
Main Results:
- Pandemics were found to have a statistically significant negative effect on tourist arrivals.
- The negative impact of pandemics on tourism is predominantly observed in low-income economies.
- High-income economies showed resilience or negligible effects from pandemic-related disruptions.
Conclusions:
- Pandemics act as a substantial deterrent to international tourism, especially in developing nations.
- The "Discussion about Pandemics Index" provides a valuable tool for assessing health crisis impacts on travel.
- Targeted support and policy interventions are necessary for low-income economies to mitigate tourism losses during pandemics.
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