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Modeling COVID-19 infection in a confined space
1School of Science, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876 China.
Abstract:
In this paper, we construct a stochastic model of the 2019-nCoV transmission in a confined space, which gives a detailed account of the interaction between the spreading virus and mobile individuals. Different aspects of the interaction at mesoscopic level, such as the human motion, the shedding and spreading of the virus, its contamination and invasion of the human body and the response of the human immune system, are touched upon in the model, their relative importance during the course of infection being evaluated. The model provides a bridge linking the epidemic statistics to the physiological parameters of individuals and may serve a theoretical guidance for epidemic prevention and control.
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