Crime Rates in a Pandemic: the Largest Criminological Experiment in History

Area of Science:

• Criminology
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic drastically altered societal routines worldwide.
• Initial data indicate a significant global decrease in crime rates following pandemic-related restrictions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of stay-at-home orders on crime rates.
• To leverage the pandemic as a quasi-experimental setting for criminological research.
• To encourage place-based and temporal analyses of crime fluctuations.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing a quasi-experimental design due to varied timing and implementation of stay-at-home orders across jurisdictions.
• Employing both novel and traditional data sources generated during the pandemic.
• Analyzing crime patterns temporally (pre- and post-mandate) and geographically.

Main Results:

• Stay-at-home orders demonstrably reduced crime rates globally.
• The differential implementation of mandates created natural variations for comparative analysis.
• The pandemic facilitated access to unique datasets for crime research.

Conclusions:

• Government-imposed restrictions on routine activities are a key factor in crime reduction.
• The pandemic provides a unique, large-scale opportunity to advance criminological theory.
• Future research should focus on specific crime types and locations to understand pandemic-related crime shifts and inform policy.