What predicts the unsuccess of bariatric surgery? An observational retrospective study

Bariatric surgery (BS) has been recognized as an effective treatment for most patients with morbid obesity, but a variable range of patients failed to achieve a successful weight-loss. Controversial data are available about predictors of unsuccess. We aimed to retrospectively assess whether clinical baseline characteristics of patients submitted to sleeve gastrectomy (SL) or gastric bypass (GBP) were associated with unsuccessful weight-loss after 12 and 24-month follow-up.

Three hundred patients who underwent BS from the 1st January 2016, with at least 24-months follow-up, were enrolled. Patients were divided according to their percentage of excess weight-loss (%EWL) either < 50% or ≥ 50% after 12 and 24-month follow-up.

None of the patients was lost at follow-up; 56 (18.7%) patients showed a %EWL < 50% at 24 months. Age, neck circumference, obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) were significantly higher, while total cholesterol and %EWL 6-months lower in those with %EWL < 50% at 12-months. Age, neck circumference, male and OSA rates were increased, while %EWL at 6-months lower in patients with %EWL < 50% at 24-months. In a multiple regression model, age (OR = 1.076; 95% CI 1.029-1.125; p = 0.001; OR = 1.066; 1.027-1.107; p < 0.001) and %EWL at 6-months (OR = 0.876; 0.840-0.913; p < 0.001; OR = 0.950; 0.928-0.972; p < 0.001) were associated with %EWL < 50% both at 12- and 24-months, respectively, and neck circumference (OR = 1.142; 1.011-1.289; p = 0.032) with %EWL < 50% at 24-months.

Older age, larger neck circumference, and %EWL at 6-months were significantly associated with BS unsuccess, showing almost 90% of those patients an unsuccessful weight-loss early after surgery. Further larger studies with longer follow-up are needed to confirm these results.