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Investigating persistent measles dynamics in Niger and associations with rainfall

Alexandre Blake1, Ali Djibo2, Ousmane Guindo3

  • 1Biology Department, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University, University Park, PA, USA.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
|August 27, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Measles transmission in Niger shows strong annual patterns linked to seasonal migration. Improving vaccination in mobile populations could reduce measles outbreaks and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Disease Dynamics

Background:

  • Measles remains a significant cause of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Current immunization strategies face challenges in achieving high coverage due to unique transmission drivers in the region.
  • Understanding measles persistence is crucial for enhancing vaccination coverage and reducing transmission.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze measles transmission mechanisms in Niger.
  • To identify dominant periodicities and spatial clustering patterns of measles cases.
  • To investigate the association between measles cases and environmental factors like rainfall.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of weekly reported measles cases at the district level in Niger (1995-2004).
  • Identification of dominant periodicities using spectral analysis.
  • Investigation of spatial clustering patterns.
  • Correlation analysis with environmental drivers, including rainfall.

Main Results:

  • Dominant annual and 2-3-year periodicities were identified in measles reporting.
  • The annual periodicity exhibited strong, stable, contiguous spatial clustering, linked to population density gradients.
  • The 2-3-year periodicities were weaker, unstable, and spatially fragmented.
  • Rainy seasons showed a reduced risk of measles case reporting.

Conclusions:

  • The annual measles periodicity in Niger is likely driven by seasonal agricultural labor migration.
  • The 2-3-year periodicity may result from factors like disease reintroductions and varied vaccine coverage.
  • Targeting seasonal mobile populations with improved vaccination strategies could mitigate measles seasonality and reduce transmission.
Keywords:
measlesmetapopulationseasonal migrationsub-Saharan Africavaccination

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