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Risk Assessment Program of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza with Deep Learning Algorithm.

Hachung Yoon1, Ah-Reum Jang2, Chungsik Jung1

  • 1Veterinary Epidemiology Division, Animal and Plant Quarantine Agency, Gimcheon, Korea.

Osong Public Health and Research Perspectives
|September 1, 2020
PubMed
Summary

A new risk assessment program for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was developed using machine learning. This HPAI model enhances disease management by identifying high-risk farms for preemptive control measures.

Keywords:
avian influenzadeep learningrisk assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Machine Learning in Animal Health
  • Disease Surveillance

Background:

  • Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) poses a significant threat to poultry industries globally.
  • Effective risk assessment is crucial for preventing and controlling HPAI outbreaks.
  • Existing surveillance methods may benefit from advanced analytical tools.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel risk assessment program for HPAI.
  • To leverage national animal health data for improved disease prediction.
  • To create a tool for proactive HPAI risk management.

Main Methods:

  • A multilayer perceptron model was developed using R Language.
  • The model utilized data from 544 HPAI-confirmed poultry farms (H5N6 and H5N8) between 2014-2017.
  • Visit records of livestock-related vehicles were incorporated into the analysis.

Main Results:

  • A neural network model with 3 hidden layers and 10 nodes per layer was selected after extensive iterations.
  • The model achieved F1 measures of 0.41, 0.68, and 0.51 for precision, recall, and validation, respectively.
  • Predicted risk values were significantly higher for outbreak farms (0.20 ± 0.31) compared to non-outbreak farms (0.18 ± 0.30).

Conclusions:

  • The developed HPAI risk assessment model was successfully piloted and implemented in subsequent epidemic seasons.
  • The model demonstrated its utility in enhancing risk management and enabling preemptive disease control.
  • This approach offers a valuable tool for mitigating the impact of HPAI.