Metropolitan Reclassification and the Urbanization of Rural America

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Urban Studies
• Rural Sociology

Background:

• Decadal reclassification of U.S. counties from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan status has occurred between 1960 and 2017.
• This reclassification impacts nearly 25% of nonmetropolitan counties and 70 million residents.
• The narrative of widespread rural decline may be influenced by these definitional changes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the paradoxical implications of county reclassification on U.S. population distribution.
• To examine the role of reclassification versus endogenous growth in metropolitan population shifts.
• To understand the effects of reclassification on rural socioeconomic indicators.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing U.S. Census Bureau data from 1960 to 2017.
• Analyzing county-level reclassification by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
• Comparing population shifts attributed to reclassification versus internal growth within metropolitan areas.

Main Results:

• Reclassification of 753 nonmetropolitan counties to metropolitan status shifted nearly 70 million people.
• All metropolitan population share growth since 1970 resulted from reclassification, not internal growth.
• Reclassification impacts inferences on rural poverty, aging, education, and economic growth.

Conclusions:

• The study reveals a paradox where population and economic growth in reclassified counties leave behind others with limited prospects.
• Cautionary lessons are provided regarding the common narrative of rural decline.
• Highlights the interdependent demographic fates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties.