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The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa
Ezra Gayawan1,2, Olushina O Awe3,4, Bamidele M Oseni1
1Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
Insights
Early COVID-19 spread in Africa showed geographic variations, with West and North Africa experiencing high incidence. Healthcare capacity influenced disease burden, guiding resource allocation for interventions.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
- COVID-19 spread globally, reaching Africa later but affecting nearly all countries on the continent.
- Understanding early COVID-19 spatio-temporal dynamics in Africa is crucial for public health responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the early spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa within the first 62 days.
- To investigate the impact of healthcare capacities (hospital beds, medical doctors) on disease incidence.
- To identify geographical and temporal patterns of COVID-19 burden across African nations.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a two-parameter hurdle Poisson model for analyzing zero counts and frequency of occurrence.
- Examined geographical variations and temporal shifts in COVID-19 incidence and burden.
- Assessed the correlation between healthcare infrastructure and disease prevalence.
Main Results:
- COVID-19 cases exhibited significant geographical variation across Africa, with high incidence in West and North African countries.
- Djibouti, Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria reported the highest disease burden per 100,000 population.
- Temporal analysis revealed a shift in disease burden from West African nations to East and Central African countries over the initial 62-day period.
Conclusions:
- Early COVID-19 spread in Africa demonstrated distinct geographical and temporal heterogeneity.
- Healthcare capacities play a role in disease burden, informing resource allocation strategies.
- Findings support targeted epidemiological interventions based on localized disease patterns and healthcare infrastructure.
Abstract:
Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. Although, the disease appeared in Africa later than other regions, it has now spread to virtually all countries on the continent. We provide early spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 within the first 62 days of the disease's appearance on the African continent. We used a two-parameter hurdle Poisson model to simultaneously analyse the zero counts and the frequency of occurrence. We investigate the effects of important healthcare capacities including hospital beds and number of medical doctors in different countries. The results show that cases of the pandemic vary geographically across Africa with notably high incidence in neighbouring countries particularly in West and North Africa. The burden of the disease (per 100 000) mostly impacted Djibouti, Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria. Temporally, during the first 4 weeks, the burden was highest in Senegal, Egypt and Mauritania, but by mid-April it shifted to Somalia, Chad, Guinea, Tanzania, Gabon, Sudan and Zimbabwe. Currently, Namibia, Angola, South Sudan, Burundi and Uganda have the least burden. These findings could be useful in guiding epidemiological interventions and the allocation of scarce resources based on heterogeneity of the disease patterns.
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