Norovirus risk at a golf course irrigated with reclaimed water: Should QMRA doses be adjusted for infectiousness?

About 25 golf courses in Ontario, Canada have environmental compliance approvals to use reclaimed water for irrigation, where disinfection is confirmed through E. coli limits. A previous study at five Ontario municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) confirmed that enteric viruses are less susceptible to disinfection than E. coli, when plants provided conventional (secondary or tertiary) treatment and routine (chlorine or UV) disinfection. Here we query whether these four treatment-disinfection scenarios plus 60-day lagoon storage of disinfected effluent would be sufficient to reduce norovirus genogroups I and II (NoV GI and GII) risk of infection to tolerable levels for a golfer who incidentally ingests NoV after handling wet golf balls at a golf course irrigated with reclaimed water. We used our RT-qPCR NoV enumeration datasets from the four treatment-disinfection scenarios above and modeled detected and non-detected NoV by Bayesian inference in 'R'. Monte Carlo simulation included pre-disinfection NoV GI and GII gene copy densities; Ontario WWTP-derived chlorine and UV log₁₀ reductions; literature-derived effluent storage decay parameters and golfer ingested volumes, followed by six different NoV dose-response (DR) models. Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) results suggest that there is an unacceptable NoV infection risk when using the conservative assumption that all detected NoV particles (RT-qPCR gene copies) are infectious, in both aggregated or disaggregated form. However, after adjusting for PCR target sequences and for infectiousness using data from recently published studies on cultivation of human NoV in human intestinal enteroids, we noted a significant reduction of infection risk. However, this less conservative (i.e., less protective) assumption for water reuse applications such as golf course irrigation may not be corroborated until human NoV are efficiently and routinely grown in cell cultures. In addition, further studies on drivers of NoV risk estimation by DR models are needed, e.g., the extent of NoV particle aggregation resulting from wastewater treatment, as well as the role of immunity. Meantime, regulatory agencies could consider more stringent treatment-disinfection requirements that target enteric viruses rather than E. coli and testing of actual reclaimed irrigation waters.