Rice drought risk assessment under climate change: Based on physical vulnerability a quantitative assessment method

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Climate Science
• Food Security

Background:

• Drought is a major agricultural disaster impacting global food security, particularly rice production.
• Assessing future drought impacts on rice yield under climate change is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

• To simulate and evaluate global rice yield risk under drought conditions using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model.
• To project future drought impacts on rice production across different climate scenarios and timeframes.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model to simulate rice growth under various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.
• Assessed drought intensity and rice physical vulnerability curves using EPIC model outputs.
• Analyzed projected changes in shortwave radiation and their correlation with rice yield loss.

Main Results:

• Projected average global rice yield loss rate of 13.1% (±0.4%) in the future.
• Identified high-risk areas for rice drought primarily north of 30°N latitude.
• Found that 77.6% of rice drought risk variation is explained by changes in shortwave radiation (r=0.88).

Conclusions:

• The developed methods provide plausible estimates for forecasting future drought risk under climate change, addressing data scarcity.
• Increased shortwave radiation is directly linked to increased rice yield loss.
• These findings can inform strategies for reducing drought-related crop losses and ensuring global food security.