Development and Validation of a Clinical Score for Predicting the Risk of Tympanosclerosis Before Surgery

To develop and validate a clinical score to predict the risk of tympanosclerosis before surgery.

A sample of 404 patients who underwent middle ear microsurgery for otitis media was enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into 2 cohorts: the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) and the validation cohort (n = 161, 40%). The preoperative predictors of tympanosclerosis were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis and implemented using a clinical score tool. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the clinical score were determined by the area under the curve (AUC) and the calibration curve.

The multivariate analysis in the training cohort (n = 243, 60%) identified independent factors for tympanosclerosis as the female sex (odds ratio [OR]: 3.83; 95% CI: 1.66-9.37), the frequency-specific air-bone gap at 250 Hz ≥ 45 dB HL (OR: 3.68; 95% CI: 1.68-8.57), aditus ad antrum blockage (OR: 3.29; 95% CI: 1.38-8.43), type I eardrum calcification (OR: 25.37; 95% CI: 8.41-88.91) or type II eardrum calcification (OR: 18.86; 95% CI: 6.89-58.77), and a history of otitis media ≥ 10 years (OR: 4.10; 95% CI: 1.58-11.83), which were all included in the clinical score tool. The AUC of the clinical score for predicting tympanosclerosis was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.85-0.93) in the training cohort and 0.89 (95% CI: 0.84-0.95) in the validation cohort. The calibration curve also showed good agreement between the predicted and observed probability.

The clinical score achieved an optimal prediction of tympanosclerosis before surgery. The presence of calcification pearls on the promontorium tympani is a strong predictor of tympanosclerosis with stapes fixation.