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Understanding COVID-19 nonlinear multi-scale dynamic spreading in Italy
Giuseppe Quaranta1, Giovanni Formica2, J Tenreiro Machado3
1Department of Structural and Geotechnical Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, via Eudossiana 18, Rome, Italy.
Nonlinear Dynamics
|September 9, 2020
Summary
This study analyzes the COVID-19 pandemic
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic's initial outbreak in Italy occurred in Lombardy.
- The virus spread across northern and central Italy with varied temporal and spatial dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To conduct a multi-scale territorial analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.
- To understand the nonlinear and spatially nonuniform epidemic spreading patterns.
Main Methods:
- Logistic regression to model total positive cases.
- Enhanced SIR-type model with differential evolution for territorial dynamics.
- Hierarchical clustering and multidimensional analysis for geographical comparisons.
Main Results:
- Identified distinct temporal and spatial patterns of COVID-19 spread across Italian regions.
- Revealed similarities and dissimilarities in epidemic developments using clustering and multidimensional analysis.
- Parametric identification and data-driven analyses provided insights into epidemic dynamics.
Conclusions:
- The study offers a comprehensive understanding of Italy's COVID-19 epidemic spreading.
- Multi-scale analysis is crucial for deciphering complex, geographically varied disease transmission.
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