Forecasting in humanitarian operations: Literature review and research needs

Area of Science:

• Humanitarian Logistics
• Disaster Risk Reduction
• Development Studies

Background:

• Forecasting research is critically underrepresented in the humanitarian sector.
• Effective forecasting is essential for improving humanitarian aid delivery and disaster response.
• A significant research gap exists in understanding the current state and future directions of humanitarian forecasting.

Purpose of the Study:

• To underscore the importance of forecasting in humanitarian operations.
• To systematically review existing forecasting research within the humanitarian context.
• To identify key areas and specific needs for future research.

Main Methods:

• A structured literature search was performed across major academic databases: Scopus, Web of Science, ABI Inform, and Google Scholar.
• The search focused on papers published between 1990 and 2018.
• A qualitative analysis was conducted to synthesize findings and identify research gaps.

Main Results:

• Only 38 relevant papers were identified between 1990 and 2018, indicating a scarcity of research.
• Three exemplary case studies of successful humanitarian forecasting were highlighted.
• Seven distinct future research streams were identified, each with specific research needs.

Conclusions:

• There is a pressing need to increase the volume and scope of forecasting research in the humanitarian field.
• The identified case studies offer valuable insights and models for future work.
• Addressing the outlined research streams can significantly enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian interventions.