The Determinants of Marathon Performance: An Observational Analysis of Anthropometric, Pre-race and In-race Variables

Researchers investigating the determinants of marathon performance have previously focused on pre-race (e.g. training) or in-race (e.g. pacing) variables, but not both. This cross-sectional study, therefore, sought to elucidate the relationship between training behaviours, in-race pacing and anthropometric variables with eventual marathon finish time. A self-report questionnaire collecting athletes' anthropometrics, training behaviours and recent race times was administered to 260 participants in the 2018 Dublin Marathon. Participants' race numbers were cross referenced with in-race split times and finish times to determine their race performance. The accuracy or pragmatism of participants' target finish time was calculated using a 'predicted' time based on their training and previous race performances and subtracting this value from their eventual finish time. Multiple regression analysis examined the influence of age, body mass index (BMI), marathon experience, training history, target finish time pragmatism and in-race pace variance on marathon performance. The model was statistically significant and predicted marathon finish time F(7,252) = 217.761, p < 0.0005, adj. R² = 0.858. Marathon experience (p = 0.01, Beta = 0.06), a pragmatic target finish time (p < 0.0005, Beta = -0.36), training history (p < 0.0005, Beta = 0.76) and in-race pace variance (p < 0.0005, Beta = 0.26) made statistically significant contributions to the overall regression model. A marathoners' training history accounts for the greatest variance in their overall performance, followed by the pragmatism of their target finish time and their in-race pace variance. This study provides the first indication of the combined relative importance of anthropometric, training and pacing variables to marathon performance.