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Updated: Dec 9, 2025

Predictive Immune Modeling of Solid Tumors
Published on: February 25, 2020
Tumor mutational burden is not predictive of cytotoxic chemotherapy response
Mina Nikanjam1, Paul Riviere1, Aaron Goodman2
1Center for Personalized Cancer Therapy and Division of Hematology and Oncology, UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center, San Diego, CA, USA.
Background:
High tumor mutational burden (TMB) predicts checkpoint blockade responsiveness, although the association with outcomes may be nuanced in certain tissue contexts. The correlation between TMB and cytotoxic chemotherapy sensitivity is unknown. This study evaluated the relationship between TMB and outcome in patients with solid tumors receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.
Methods:
University of California San Diego patients who received cytotoxic chemotherapy within one year after biopsy for TMB evaluation were included in a retrospective analysis. Physician notes and imaging reports in the electronic medical record were reviewed to determine clinical benefit and progression-free survival (PFS).
Results:
Among 1526 patients with TMB availability, there were 294 eligible patients who received chemotherapy. There were no significant differences in TMB between those with stable disease ≥6 months/partial response/complete response versus others (t-test, p = .22). There were no significant differences in PFS for patients with TMB <10 vs. TMB ≥10 mutations/Mb (log-rank test, median and 95% CI: 6.0 (4.8-7.4) vs. 5.4 (4.3-6.6) months; p = .21). Nor were there significant differences in PFS for patients with a TMB <10 vs. TMB ≥10 mutations/mb for breast (p = .07), lung (p = .47), or gastrointestinal cancer (p = .53).
Conclusions:
In summary, TMB was not predictive of stable disease ≥6 months/partial response/complete response or PFS in patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.
Trials Registration:
NCT02478931.
Insights
Tumor mutational burden (TMB) does not predict patient response to cytotoxic chemotherapy. This study found no significant differences in clinical benefit or progression-free survival (PFS) based on TMB levels in solid tumors.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Genomics
- Cancer Research
Background:
- High tumor mutational burden (TMB) is linked to immunotherapy response.
- The relationship between TMB and cytotoxic chemotherapy effectiveness is not well understood.
- This study investigates TMB's role in predicting outcomes for solid tumors treated with chemotherapy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine if TMB predicts clinical benefit in patients receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.
- To assess the correlation between TMB and progression-free survival (PFS) in solid tumors.
- To evaluate TMB as a predictive biomarker for chemotherapy response.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 294 patients with solid tumors receiving cytotoxic chemotherapy.
- TMB was evaluated within one year of chemotherapy initiation.
- Clinical benefit and PFS were determined by reviewing electronic medical records and imaging.
Main Results:
- No significant difference in TMB was observed between patients who achieved clinical benefit (stable disease ≥6 months, partial response, or complete response) and those who did not.
- Progression-free survival (PFS) did not significantly differ between patients with low TMB (<10 mutations/Mb) and high TMB (≥10 mutations/Mb).
- This lack of association held true across specific cancer types including breast, lung, and gastrointestinal cancers.
Conclusions:
- Tumor mutational burden (TMB) is not a predictive biomarker for response to cytotoxic chemotherapy.
- TMB does not appear to influence clinical benefit or progression-free survival in patients undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors.
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