Hospital's instability wedges.

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Operations Research
• Hospital Management
• Patient Flow Analysis

Background:

• Modern public hospitals face challenges managing patient admissions and bed availability.
• Hospital congestion episodes, where new admissions exceed bed capacity, disrupt operations.
• Predicting and mitigating hospital congestion is crucial for efficient healthcare delivery.

Purpose of the Study:

• To define and investigate hospital congestion episodes.
• To quantify the risk of exceeding midnight occupancy thresholds.
• To identify the
• instability wedge
• phenomenon in hospital capacity management.

Main Methods:

• Defining hospital congestion episodes based on patient admission and bed availability.
• Analyzing the likelihood of midnight occupancy exceeding specified thresholds.
• Demonstrating the
• instability wedge
• using patient journey data from Flinders Medical Centre.

Main Results:

• A novel risk measure, the
• instability wedge
• , was identified.
• Small fluctuations in patient admissions or discharges significantly impact congestion risk.
• This sensitivity highlights the precarious balance in hospital operations.

Conclusions:

• The
• instability wedge
• provides a framework for understanding and monitoring hospital congestion risk.
• Targeted adjustments in admission, discharge, and cancellation rates can alleviate congestion.
• The findings offer actionable insights for improving hospital operational efficiency.