E-Cigarettes and Adult Smoking: Evidence from Minnesota.

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Health Economics
• Tobacco Control Policy

Background:

• E-cigarettes deliver nicotine via vapor, potentially less harmful than combustible cigarette smoke.
• The impact of e-cigarette use on adult smoking cessation remains under-researched.
• Minnesota's e-cigarette tax offers a unique opportunity to study policy effects.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the causal impact of Minnesota's e-cigarette tax on adult smoking cessation.
• To quantify the effect of e-cigarette price increases on smoking participation.

Main Methods:

• Utilized Current Population Survey Tobacco Use Supplements data (1992-2015).
• Employed difference-in-differences analysis to compare Minnesota with control groups post-tax.
• Calculated cross-price elasticity between e-cigarette prices and smoking participation.

Main Results:

• The e-cigarette tax significantly increased adult smoking and reduced smoking cessation in Minnesota.
• Estimated cross elasticity of smoking participation with respect to e-cigarette prices was 0.13.
• Approximately 32,400 fewer adult smokers quit in Minnesota due to the tax during the study period.

Conclusions:

• E-cigarette taxation may negatively impact smoking cessation efforts among adults.
• National-level taxation could deter millions of smokers from quitting.
• Policy decisions on e-cigarette taxation require balancing cessation benefits against youth vaping concerns.