Mapping carbon accumulation potential from global natural forest regrowth

Area of Science:

• Environmental science
• Climate change mitigation
• Forestry

Background:

• Global warming necessitates greenhouse gas emission reduction and carbon dioxide capture.
• Natural forest regrowth is a strategy for carbon sequestration, but its potential is poorly quantified due to variable accumulation rates.
• Accurate assessments are crucial for effective climate change mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify factors driving variations in natural forest carbon accumulation rates.
• To create a global map of aboveground carbon accumulation rates during the first 30 years of forest regrowth.
• To refine estimates of climate mitigation potential from forest regrowth.

Main Methods:

• Compiled 13,112 georeferenced measurements of carbon accumulation from natural forest regrowth.
• Combined field data with 66 environmental covariate layers.
• Developed a global, one-kilometre-resolution map of potential aboveground carbon accumulation rates.

Main Results:

• Identified climatic factors as primary drivers of carbon accumulation rate variation.
• Revealed over 100-fold global variation in rates, with IPCC default rates underestimating accumulation by 32% on average.
• Quantified an 11% lower maximum climate mitigation potential from forest regrowth than previously estimated.

Conclusions:

• The developed global map provides a robust tool for assessing natural forest regrowth as a climate mitigation strategy.
• Current models may underestimate carbon sequestration potential, necessitating updated assessments.
• Understanding regional variations in carbon accumulation is vital for optimizing climate mitigation efforts.