Evaluating Biodiversity Metric Response to Forecasted Land Use Change in the Northern Rio Grande Basin
Elizabeth A Samson1, Kenneth G Boykin1, William G Kepner2
1Center for Applied Spatial Ecology, New Mexico Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Ecology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, USA.
Environments
|September 28, 2020
Summary
Future land use changes in the American Southwest will increase housing density, decreasing wildlife habitat and biodiversity. The A2 Scenario projects the most significant impacts on species richness across arid and semi-arid watersheds.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Environmental Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Arid and semi-arid watersheds in the American Southwest face significant management challenges due to projected land use changes.
- Understanding these changes is crucial for effective conservation and resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effects of future land use change scenarios on wildlife habitat and biodiversity metrics in the Northern Rio Grande River Basin, New Mexico.
- To quantify potential impacts on species richness and ecosystem services.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (iCLUS) from the US Environmental Protection Agency for housing density projections (2000-2100).
- Employed habitat models from the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project to evaluate changes in biodiversity metrics.
- Applied five iCLUS scenarios aligned with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission storylines (A1, A2, B1, B2).
Main Results:
- Projected increases in housing density and developed land extent throughout the 21st century.
- A resultant decrease in areas supporting all terrestrial vertebrate species richness categories was observed across scenarios.
- The A2 Scenario demonstrated the most substantial negative effect on species richness across different categories.
Conclusions:
- Land use change, driven by increased development, poses a significant threat to biodiversity in arid and semi-arid regions.
- Integrating land use scenarios with habitat modeling provides a valuable tool for environmental impact assessments and adaptive planning.
- Decision-makers can utilize these findings for proactive conservation strategies in vulnerable watersheds.
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