Identifying Optimal Loci for the Molecular Diagnosis of Microsatellite Instability

Microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts oncological response to checkpoint blockade immunotherapies. Although microsatellite mutation is pathognomonic for the condition, loci have unequal diagnostic value for predicting MSI within and across cancer types.

To better inform molecular diagnosis of MSI, we examined 9438 tumor-normal exome pairs and 901 whole genome sequence pairs from 32 different cancer types and cataloged genome-wide microsatellite instability events. Using a statistical framework, we identified microsatellite mutations that were predictive of MSI within and across cancer types. The diagnostic accuracy of different subsets of maximally informative markers was estimated computationally using a dedicated validation set.

Twenty-five cancer types exhibited hypermutated states consistent with MSI. Recurrently mutated microsatellites associated with MSI were identifiable in 15 cancer types, but were largely specific to individual cancer types. Cancer-specific microsatellite panels of 1 to 7 loci were needed to attain ≥95% diagnostic sensitivity and specificity for 11 cancer types, and in 8 of the cancer types, 100% sensitivity and specificity were achieved. Breast cancer required 800 loci to achieve comparable performance. We were unable to identify recurrent microsatellite mutations supporting reliable MSI diagnosis in ovarian tumors. Features associated with informative microsatellites were cataloged.

Most microsatellites informative for MSI are specific to particular cancer types, requiring the use of tissue-specific loci for optimal diagnosis. Limited numbers of markers are needed to provide accurate MSI diagnosis in most tumor types, but it is challenging to diagnose breast and ovarian cancers using predefined microsatellite locus panels.