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Carbon dioxide physiological forcing dominates projected Eastern Amazonian drying.

T B Richardson1, P M Forster1, T Andrews2

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|October 12, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future Amazonian precipitation changes are uncertain. Carbon dioxide

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Atmospheric science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Future projections of east Amazonian precipitation are uncertain.
  • Understanding precipitation response to atmospheric forcings is crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Analyze Amazonian precipitation response to individual atmospheric forcings.
  • Identify drivers of precipitation changes and model uncertainty.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized multiple global climate models.
  • Analyzed precipitation response to black carbon and carbon dioxide (CO2).
  • Employed a simple model to assess CO2 physiological effects.

Main Results:

  • Black carbon drives reduced Amazonian precipitation via temperature-driven circulation changes.
  • Carbon dioxide (CO2) causes drying concentrated in the east.
  • CO2's physiological effect on plant stomata is the dominant driver of rapid precipitation reduction.
  • CO2 physiological effects dominate multi-model mean precipitation projections.

Conclusions:

  • CO2 physiological effects are the primary driver of projected Amazonian drying.
  • Temperature-driven changes show large inter-model variability and tend to cancel out.
  • Understanding these drivers is key to refining future climate projections for the Amazon.